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Methodology for Estimation of Days Dry Effects

Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD 20705-2350

Corresponding author: Melvin Kuhn; e-mail: mkuhn@aipl.arsusda.gov.

The primary objective of this research was to determine if, with appropriate methodology, unbiased estimates of days dry (DD) effects on subsequent lactation milk yield can be obtained from field data, particularly when DD is correlated with cow effects. Another objective was to ascertain relevant sampling properties of designed trials for estimation of DD effects. Simulated records were used to assess methodology. Along with a model with no adjustments for cow effects, alternative models including 1) previous lactation milk yield, 2) a prior adjustment for cow effects estimated from an animal model, and 3) a combination of 1 and 2, were tested.

Estimates from the unadjusted model were biased downward; however, the 3 alternative analyses provided estimates of DD effects that were essentially unbiased, with a prior adjustment for cow effects and previous milk yield in the model providing the best results in terms of elimination of bias. Therefore, DD effects can be estimated from field data without bias from cow effects.

A designed trial with 2 groups and 10 or fewer cows/ group is noninformative and has an unacceptably high probability of leading to invalid conclusions. A minimum of 30 cows/group is considerably better and should be used whenever possible. Even with 30 cows/group, however, the power is low unless the difference between DD groups for yield is at least 1130 kg. Prior correction of 305-d, mature equivalent records for cow effects, using predicted producing abilities, could be done in designed trials to improve the statistical power of tests and accuracy of estimates.

Key Words: days dry · methodology · simulation

Abbreviations: DD = days dry · PE = permanent environmental · PrevM = previous lactation milk yield.