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J.
Dairy Sci. 88:812-826
© American Dairy Science
Association, 2005.
Effectiveness of National and Regional Sire Evaluations in Predicting
Future-Daughter Milk Yield
H. D.
Norman1, P. M. VanRaden1, R. L.
Powell1, J. R. Wright1 and W. R.
VerBoort2
1 Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory,
Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD 20705
2
California Dairy Herd Improvement Association, Clovis 93612
Corresponding author: H. D. Norman; e-mail: dnorman@aipl.arsusda.gov.
National and regional bull evaluations were compared for
ability to predict standardized milk yield of future daughters.
Correlations between evaluations and first-, second-, and
third-parity yields of future daughters were calculated within
herd-year-month group. Mean correlations with predicted yield of
future daughters across the United States were higher for national
(0.109, 0.111, and 0.082 for first, second, and third parities,
respectively) than for Northeast (0.098, 0.085, and 0.061) Holstein
evaluations; corresponding correlations for future Northeast
daughters were similar. Bull evaluations based on the first 5
parities of daughters that first calved through 1991 from either
California, North Central, Northeast, or Southeast regions as well as
from the entire United States were compared with standardized milk
yields of daughters that calved later. Correlations with first-,
second-, and third-parity yields of future daughters were higher
(from 0.001 to 0.011) for national than for regional
evaluations. National evaluations were better predictors of
future-daughter yield, especially for California and the Southeast.
Evaluations based on only first parity were slightly better than
those based on the first 5 parities in predicting first-parity yield
for 3 of 4 regions but were far less useful in predicting
second-or third-parity yield regardless of region. Regional
evaluations included fewer bulls because of limited numbers of
daughters in each region. The top 100 bulls for genetic merit for
milk yield based on regional rankings were inferior to the top
100 bulls based on national ranking by 25 to 173 kg. Reliance on
regional rather than national evaluations would reduce current
US genetic gains.
Key Words: regional evaluation · genetic evaluation · yield
prediction · genotype-environment interaction
Abbreviations: EAIC = Eastern AI Cooperative ·
NEAISC = Northeast AI Sire Comparison · MT-CASE = multiple-trait
cow and sire evaluation
Copyright ©
2005 by the American Dairy Science Association.